SPC AC 281650
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING
THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING AN
INTENSE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE SERN
ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE LIFTING NNEWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LATEST RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY MORE
WWD SURFACE LOW TRACK /WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM/ WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEWD ALONG THE
SC COAST TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND SRN FL PENINSULA.
...COASTAL SC...
BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...SETUP WOULD
RESULT IN THE WWD/NWWD DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM WARM SECTOR ONTO
IMMEDIATE COAST. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WARM/MARINE FRONT AND AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW WOULD BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD
LIKELY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.
...ERN/SRN FL PENINSULA...
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY. WHILE MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 C/KM...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S WILL RESULT IN
MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG. THE VEERED NATURE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD.
..MEAD.. 02/28/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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