SPC AC 140531
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...HIGH PLAINS...
LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL EJECT
ACROSS MEXICO INTO SWRN TX BY PEAK HEATING AS PRIMARY UPPER LOW DIGS
SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS LEAD FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE
ASCENT ALONG GRADUALLY MOISTENING DRYLINE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S DEW POINTS SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BY 00Z. WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE DRYLINE...LAPSE RATES WILL APPROACH
DRY ADIABATIC IN THE SFC-2KM LAYER. AS A RESULT...SFC PARCELS WILL
REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
INTO SWRN TX AS FORECAST BY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN MEAGER
MOISTURE...CLOUD BASES WILL BE RATHER HIGH AND GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE ERN-NERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND GRADUALLY MOISTENING
PROFILES WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR BUOYANT UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTNING.
...SOUTH FL...
STRONG HEATING WITHIN VEERED AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SRN PENINSULA OF FL TUESDAY. GIVEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF FL...LARGE SCALE FEATURES WILL NOT PROVE
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A FEW STORMS THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY DARK AS WIND SHIFT GRADUALLY SAGS OFFSHORE.
..DARROW.. 04/14/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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