Aug 8, 2009 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 8 06:04:54 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090808 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20090808 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 080600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2009
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN EWD INTO THE
   NORTHEAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD EJECT ENEWD ACROSS
   THE N CENTRAL U.S. AS A SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING FEATURE THIS
   PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.  A SURFACE
   BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING WSW-ENE ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
   SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD...AS THE WRN TROUGH
   SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   STORMS ONGOING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD SHOULD SHIFT EWD/ENEWD INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  IN THE WAKE OF
   THE DEPARTING STORMS...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FROM MI/WI
   WSWWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG A
   QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE.
   
   AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE --
   STRETCHING FROM SWRN KS ENEWD ACROSS SERN NEB/IA AND INTO WI DURING
   THE AFTERNOON -- TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.  
   
   WHILE THE STRONGER BELT OF FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE
   OF THE FRONT...THE SRN FRINGE OF THE FASTER FLOW SHOULD RESIDE ATOP
   THE NWRN EDGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR.  THUS...A NARROW CORRIDOR
   OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD BE
   JUXTAPOSED WITH THE MODERATELY-UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ZONE. 
   THOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL ALIGN ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
   THUS LIMITING WIND POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE...LARGE HAIL THREAT
   JUSTIFIES INTRODUCING A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER /30%/ SEVERE
   PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.  WITH A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED TO
   DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXPECT STORMS/SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
   CONTINUE/SPREAD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
   
   FARTHER W...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NERN CO AND
   VICINITY...WITHIN A REGION OF POST-FRONTAL ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW.  SOME
   DESTABILIZATION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER STORMS.  LATER...STORMS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   MOVE SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
   INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   ...PARTS OF NY/NRN PA/NRN NJ AND VICINITY...
   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT ERN CANADA...WITHIN A
   BROAD/PERSISTENT ZONE OF LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN NOSE OF A PERSISTENT WLY/WSWLY LOW-LEVEL
   JET.
   
   WITH THE JET AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...MULTIPLE BANDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
   SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION -- WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER...WHERE DESTABILIZATION CAN
   OCCUR...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BECOME HEIGHTENED THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...AIDED FURTHER BY MODERATE WNWLY FLOW ALOFT.  THOUGH HAIL
   POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN LIMITED...STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL
   LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS --
   PARTICULARLY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WHEN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE
   MAXIMIZED.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/08/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z