SPC AC 221708
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM RICK...NOW EMBEDDED ON THE ERN
EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WELL-DEVELOPED
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN CREATING
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SE MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH TIME LIKELY
DIMINISHING THE TORNADO THREAT BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
...OH AND TN VALLEYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET ORIENTED FROM OH
SSWWD INTO ERN KY AND ERN TN. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE QUITE STRONG...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 10/22/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
|
