SPC AC 070703
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CST WED JAN 07 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS INITIALLY FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO GREAT BASIN
WILL ELONGATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NRN PORTION OF SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ESEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SWRN EXTENSION SAGS MORE SLOWLY
SWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP ESEWD FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE
MS...OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THE NEWD ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED AIR MASS FROM THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE
POOR...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING ANY POSITIVE BUOYANCY TO BELOW 600-700
MB AT MOST LOCATIONS. THUS...DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE LOWER OH...TN
AND LOWER MS VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT.
..MEAD.. 01/07/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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