SPC AC 050722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPR TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEND A
CDFNT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTN. DRY AIR MASS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES LOW TO NIL FROM THE
ROCKIES EWD. NEXT UPR LOW WAS CROSSING 140W AND WILL ARRIVE IN OR
NEAR THE CNTRL CA CST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
...CNTRL CA...
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPR LOW ALONG THE CNTRL CA CST /ECMWF SLOWEST/.
SPRINGTIME SYSTEMS SIMILAR TO THIS ARE OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A BELT
OF MODEST PWATS AND A BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL REGIME...IF MAKING IT INLAND...WILL LIKELY BE
SHOWERY WITH LOWERING WBZ LEVELS/STEEP LAPSE RATES...POSSIBLY
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL/BRIEF TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED... PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AND ANY LATER TIMING
WILL NOT NECESSARILY COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTN/EVE.
AS SUCH...SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN INTRODUCED ATTM.
..RACY.. 04/05/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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