SPC AC 050722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLNS...MID-MO VLY AND UPR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
TAKING THE GRT BASIN MID-LVL WAVE ENE INTO THE PLNS ON SUNDAY. THE
WEAKLY PHASED NRN STREAM WAVE WILL EDGE EWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
PLNS WHILE THE SUB-TROPICAL CUT-OFF WEAKENS OVER FL.
AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWD FROM KS INTO THE MID-MO VLY
AND CORN BELT ALONG A WRMFNT DURING THE PD. A TRAILING CDFNT WILL
SAG SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLNS AS A DRYLINE MIXES INTO SRN PLNS.
...CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY...
LOW CONFIDENCE SVR OTLK EXISTS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING OF THE UPR WAVE AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE WARM SECTOR.
SUNDAY MORNING TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE IN PROCESS OF WEAKENING OVER
THE ERN CORN BELT/UPR MS VLY ALONG THE NOSE OF A WSW LLJ.
THEREAFTER...MID-LVL HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF THE EJECTING PRIMARY WAVE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE. THAT WILL ALLOW AIR MASS
TO RECOVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MO VLY AND CORN BELT ALONG/S
OF THE SFC LOW/FRONT. BY LATE AFTN...THE APCH OF THE SRN BRANCH
IMPULSE AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF THE NRN ROCKIES
SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STG-SVR TSTM RISKS ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE IN ERN PARTS OF KS/NEB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MID-LVL FLOW WILL BOOST DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD/DEVELOP TOWARD THE UPR
MS VLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
...CNTRL HIGH PLNS...
MOIST NELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
TERRAIN TSTMS IN ERN WY/NERN CO SUNDAY AFTN. ISOLD SVR STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS MIDLVL TEMPERATURES COOL AMIDST 45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR.
ACTIVITY MAY GROW INTO ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS AND MOVE INTO
PARTS OF WRN/NRN NEB AND MOST OF THE DKTS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN SD AND PARTS OF NEB.
...SRN PLNS...
SRN FRINGE OF THE EJECTING SRN BRANCH IMPULSE WILL GRAZE THE SRN
KS...OK AND W TX PORTION OF THE DRYLINE SUNDAY EVENING WITH ISOLD
TSTMS POSSIBLE. MAGNITUDE OF MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARILY LARGE
HAIL...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
..RACY.. 06/05/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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