SPC AC 190722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST EAST OF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...CUT-OFF FROM
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER RIDGING APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN A PROMINENT FEATURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A
LINGERING SHEAR AXIS DEMARCATING THE WESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN JUST TO ITS WEST...AND UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
OF PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS
MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE EVOLVING
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY MOIST AND CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY
STRONG FLOW /AND FAVORABLE SHEAR/ AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT UNCERTAINTIES ARE
JUST TOO LARGE...OVER TOO LARGE OF AN AREA...TO ATTEMPT TO
REASONABLY DELINEATE AREAS OF SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE
PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 06/19/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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