SPC AC 060719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SUN SEP 06 2009
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM DAY 2. UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH SRN CANADA...THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. CUTOFF LOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION.
...ERN ND AND NW MN THROUGH SD AND NEB...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE ERN EXTENT OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVERLAP MOIST AXIS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM ERN
ND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SD AND WRN NEB AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
ROTATING TROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH ATTENDANT MID LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR...SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO LINES OR
CLUSTERS AND BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STRONGER FLOW
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL COULD SERVE AS A
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. AT THIS
TIME MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.
..DIAL.. 09/06/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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