Nov 19, 2009 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 19 08:18:48 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20091119 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20091119 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 190817
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WITHIN A PERSISTENT SPLIT LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
   THE CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
   FROM THE TX/LA BORDER VICINITY TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
   SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM...AND A RETREATING MARITIME AIRMASS...WILL
   FOCUS THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD ACROSS
   THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO FL. ADDITIONAL/MORE ISOLATED
   TSTMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL WA/PERHAPS COASTAL ORE AS THE NEXT IN
   A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/FRONTAL BANDS REACHES THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST LA TO FL...
   AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX CROSSES THE GULF
   COAST STATES...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN
   VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD RETREATING MARITIME BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
   NORTHERN GULF. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MAIN WARM/MOIST SECTOR SHOULD
   REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SURFACE LOW
   DEVELOPMENT/ENCROACHING WARM FRONT TOWARD THE COAST COULD
   POTENTIALLY SUPPORT SOME STRONG/SEVERE DEVELOPMENT INLAND...PERHAPS
   FAR SOUTHEAST LA DIURNALLY OR THE FL PANHANDLE/FL WEST COAST LATE
   SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
   UPPER SYSTEM/INLAND AIRMASS QUALITY...AND SEEMINGLY MODEST POTENTIAL
   OVERALL...PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/19/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z