SPC AC 230723
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...FLORIDA/GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES
FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CONVECTIVE BAND
FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONSENSUS PLACING THE LINE OF STORMS IN THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SCNTRL GA. LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ARE
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE CNTRL
U.S. LOSES INFLUENCE ON THE REGION FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT
MAY EXIST WITH CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE GREATER
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SE GA SWD ACROSS THE ERN PART
OF THE FL PENINSULA. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDDAY ON
FRIDAY IN ERN FL SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F...MUCAPE VALUES IN
THE 1500 TO 2000 J/G RANGE AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS DUE TO WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. IN ADDITION...THE GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING SUGGESTING TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE. A SEVERE THREAT COULD ALSO EXIST IN ERN SC CLOSER TO THE
LOW-LEVEL JET BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC THERE. ATTM...TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES EXIST FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SEE TEXT AREA.
..BROYLES.. 12/23/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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