May 11, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 11 05:36:17 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100511 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100511 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100511 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100511 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 110533
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY...
   
   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS/MID-MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
   AS A WELL-DEFINED 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
   ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE QUICKLY NWD ACROSS WRN OK
   WHERE FORECASTS SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ALONG THE DRYLINE...LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW
   INITIATION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
   ERN OK AND TX PANHANDLES SWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO NW TX. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 00Z SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH VERY LARGE
   HAIL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE. A VERY CONDITIONAL
   SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST SWD ACROSS SW OK INTO NW TX WHERE ANY
   STORM THAT INITIATES SHOULD HAVE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. WILL NOT
   INTRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITY CONTOUR DUE TO THE ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.
   
   FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI...MODEL FORECASTS
   ARE IN AGREEMENT INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS
   EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTS IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE WARM FRONT AT 03Z TO 06Z IN CNTRL KS EWD
   INTO WRN MO SHOW ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE
   STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE SFC-BASED AND HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...A NEWD STORM
   MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH
   CONVECTION BECOMING ELEVATED. THE CONVECTION MAY REMAIN STRONG
   ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
   APPROACHES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AS
   MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
   FORECASTS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 00Z ALONG NRN EDGE
   OF INSTABILITY AND MOVE THIS CONVECTION EWD INTO THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIAN MTNS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THE
   STORMS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS.
   
   ...CO FRONT RANGE...
   THE EXIT REGION OF A WELL-DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE NEWD
   INTO CNTRL CO BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
   FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
   TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
   FRONT RANGE AROUND 00Z. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
   WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.
   
   ..BROYLES/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/11/2010
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z