May 11, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 11 16:23:22 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100511 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100511 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100511 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100511 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 111620
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010
   
   VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF OK/KS INTO THE
   LOWER OH VALLEY...
   
   ...NORTHWEST OK/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NM.  THIS FEATURE IS WELL HANDLED BY THE 12Z
   NAM/GFS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
   OK THIS EVENING.  AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
   WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY ACROSS TX/OK.  THIS WILL
   RESULT IN RAPID LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH
   OF NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AROUND OR AFTER DARK.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   IN NORTHWEST OK INDICATE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKENING CAP.  ALSO...WIND
   PROFILES STRENGTHEN DRAMATICALLY DURING THE EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-400 M2/S2. 
   THIS SUGGESTS THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING OVER NORTHWEST OK...WITH SGFNT
   HAIL THREAT SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS BY LATE EVENING.
    CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
   AREA...BUT HELD OFF DUE TO CONCERNS OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
   
   ...REMAINDER OF OK...
   A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT
   THROUGHOUT OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VARIOUS MODEL
   SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   STATE.  WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
   LIMITED.  HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMICS AND WIND PROFILES ARGUE FOR A
   RISK OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM TODAY.
   
   ...SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...
   SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHERN
   MO.  DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MID
   60S VALUES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN
   IND.  BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE DAYTIME
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...A RATHER WEAK CAP AND
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS
   AREA ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RISK OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL TO
   SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
   
   ..HART/SMITH.. 05/11/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z