May 30, 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 30 19:49:27 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100530 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100530 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100530 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100530 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 301946
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010
   
   VALID 302000Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NCNTRL
   OK AND SCNTRL/SERN KS...
   
   ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST: BETTER DEFINE WRN EDGE
   OF SLIGHT RISK OVER OK.
   
   ...KS/OK...
   19Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A MESOLOW OVER NWRN OK WITH A COLD FRONT N
   THROUGH KP28-KOMA AND S TO KCSM-KLBB THEN ARCING NWWD ALONG THE NM
   HIGH PLAINS.
   
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING OVER KS ALONG THE FRONT WILL
   CONTINUE SWWD IN A ZIPPER-LIKE FASHION INTO NWRN OK IN THE 20-22Z
   TIME FRAME AMIDST MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   EXISTS ALONG COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES
   WILL RESULT IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
   AND HIGH WINDS WITH MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  ACTIVITY
   WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCS AND LINGER OVER
   SERN KS AND NCNTRL/CNTRL OK LATER IN THE EVENING...POSSIBLY
   BACKBUILDING ALONG SWRN FLANKS OVERNIGHT.  SVR THREATS SHOULD
   GRADUALLY WANE AFTER 03Z OR SO.
   
   REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED./RACY
   
   ..RACY/HALES/JEWELL.. 05/30/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010/
   
   EVOLVING ZONAL FLOW MUCH OF CONUS AS COLD UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO
   SRN CANADA AND HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  WEAK
   STALLED CUT-OFF LOW OVER MS WILL BEGIN DRIFTING NEWD AND WEAKEN
   FURTHER.
   
   COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM SURFACE LOW NRN MN THRU WRN IA TO NWRN
   OK AND ERN NM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE RATHER LOW END SEVERE
   CONCERN TODAY.
   
   ...KS/OK...
   A MOIST AND MDTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS IN PLACE ACROSS KS/OK IN
   ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAISE SURFACE TEMPS
   TO NEAR OR ABOVE 90F BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH EFFECTIVELY REMOVES THE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND RESULTS IN MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG.
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN
   KS SWWD INTO SWRN OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE/PROPAGATE RATHER
   SLOWLY E/SEWD THRU THE EVENING.  AS THE SHEAR PROFILES DROP BELOW
   ABOUT 20KT THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE
   COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AOA
   7C/KM...AND THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS SHOULD SUPPORT
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
   
   ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING BY
   THIS EVENING.
   
   ...MN/WI...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL HELP TO INITIATE ISOLATED
   AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MN/WI/IA...AGAIN VICINITY OF
   THE COLD FRONT.  MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE
   ISOLATED...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND CAPE.  A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
   POSSIBLE...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT PRESENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MS THIS MORNING...WITH AMPLE LOW AND
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO
   THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN/GA.  THE MID
   LEVEL COLD POOL HAS BEEN SLOWLY WARMING WITH THIS
   SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DECREASING HAIL THREAT.  NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
   STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z