Jun 1, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 1 16:22:27 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100601 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100601 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100601 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100601 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 011619
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010
   
   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ERN NE/WRN IA AND PARTS
   OF NWRN MO AND SERN SD...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
   THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND...
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY...
   FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGHS EXTENDS FROM PAC NW TO
   NERN U.S.  IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS WY/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
   DEEPEN LEE TROUGH/SFC LOW CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FURTHER ENHANCING THE
   SHEAR PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON IN AN ALREADY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
   FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS A VERY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS SPREAD NWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
   WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM AND MLCAPES AOA 3000
   J/KG...ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR...LARGE HAIL IS ALREADY A THREAT
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SEWD FROM CENTRAL MN WSWWD
   TO WRN NEB.
   
   DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
   JET RESPONDING TO DEEPENING LEE LOW CENTRAL PLAINS...PARAMETERS WILL
   BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS BY MID AFTERNOON
   ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NEB AND INTO WRN IA.  AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK
   ACROSS ERN NEB IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS TO THE W...POTENTIAL
   FOR TORNADO'S ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE BY MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB...AND INTO WRN IA/NWRN MO BY THIS EVENING.
   
   HAVE UPGRADED TO A MDT MUCH OF ERN NEB/WRN IA FOR THE RISK OF VERY
   LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXTREME INSTABILITY. BY EVENING SHEAR
   PROFILES BECOME INCREASING FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SERN
   NEB/SWRN IA WITH POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO.
   
   STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD
   PROPAGATING MCS/S EARLY TONIGHT MOVING EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY WITH
   AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SE NY ALONG AN AXIS
   OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES
   IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDS
   EWD ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
   MID 60S F. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD RESULT IN A
   GRADUAL EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE BOSTON WSR-88D VWP
   ESTIMATES 40 KT OF FLOW AT 1 TO 2 KM AGL WHICH COMBINED WITH
   INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS
   AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A SUPERCELL CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
   ERN PART OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN
   AREAS TO THE WEST.
   
   ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY
   EVENING.
   
   ..HALES/JIRAK.. 06/01/2010
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z