Jun 2, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 2 05:42:25 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100602 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100602 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100602 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100602 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 020540
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2010
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...OZARKS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   A HIGH-LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD
   FROM THE NERN PACIFIC EWD ACROSS NRN NORTH AMERICA.  MEANWHILE...A
   QUASI-ZONAL CURRENT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW WILL UNDERCUT THIS BLOCK
   OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES...WHILE IN THE LOW LATITUDES...A SLOW
   MOVING UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS TX.  
   
   AT THE SURFACE...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LOCATION OF
   THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE OH/MID MS VALLEYS LATER TODAY DUE
   TO THE EFFECTS OF A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL BEING GENERATED BY ONGOING
   MCS OVER IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL.  THE 02/00Z 4 KM NMM APPEARS TO HAVE A
   SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS THAN THAT OF THE
   MESOSCALE MODELS WITH THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING SWD TO
   SRN PARTS OF IL/IND/OH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  THE ERN EXTENSION OF
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRAILING SWWD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN
   NY...WHILE THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL STRETCH SWWD THROUGH
   THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO W-CNTRL OK BY PEAK HEATING.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...
   
   BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
   FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT LEADING EDGE OF ONGOING MCS WILL HAVE
   MOVED THROUGH IL INTO IND BY 12Z.  THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CAPABLE
   OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING...PRIOR TO
   RE-INTENSIFYING BY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF OH INTO WRN NY/PA.  A
   25-35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J PER KG/ INTO THE SWRN FLANK
   OF MCS.  WHEN COUPLED WITH 35-45 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL
   FAVOR EMBEDDED BOWING/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  
   
   FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
   MODESTLY STRONG OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EVENING DUE TO ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS
   ALONG A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACK.  AS SUCH...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
   FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING
   OUTFLOW/SYNOPTIC COMPOSITE BOUNDARY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  IT
   NOW APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE TO THE S OF THE STRONGER
   MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 
   NONETHELESS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE MOIST WITH DEW POINTS
   IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A MODERATE TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3500 J/KG.  THE GIVEN
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL/MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE THREATS FOR HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
   
   ...OZARKS INTO SRN PLAINS...
   
   DIURNAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND TO
   THE S OF SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SWD.  WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. LESS THAN 30 KT/...THE PRESENCE OF
   A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J PER KG/ WILL
   SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS/CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND 
   HAIL.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ISOLATED...DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY WITHIN THE
   POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BEING ENCOURAGED
   BY A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  THE BEST
   COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER
   KG/ AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE RATON MESA
   WHERE A SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
   
   ...NRN ME...
   
   THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH
   CNTRL QUEBEC...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ALONG
   THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   MODERATELY STRONG...DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT CAN
   DEVELOP.
   
   ..MEAD/STOPPKOTTE.. 06/02/2010
   
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