Jun 6, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 6 06:06:25 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the illinois...ohio...indiana...and western pennsylvania this evening and overnight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20100606 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100606 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100606 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100606 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 060603
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH
   THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO TN VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH...ANCHORED BY A VORTEX OVER QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO
   AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NERN U.S. AND SWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
   REGION.  A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING ESEWD
   THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
   AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT TODAY AS THEY MOVE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH
   VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS.
   
   IN THE SOUTHEAST...A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING
   EWD THROUGH SRN AL PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
   SOME TODAY AS IT TRACKS SEWD THROUGH SRN GA TO THE NRN/CENTRAL FL
   PENINSULA...S OF THE AMPLIFYING NERN/MID ATLANTIC REGION TROUGH. 
   
   IN THE WEST...A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW
   LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY...RESULTING IN AN EWD
   SHIFT OF THE NRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO
   THE NRN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...THE SRN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
   ANCHORED OVER AZ/NM WITH A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO ROTATING SSEWD ALONG
   ERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
   TORNADOES/ REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY FROM SERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD
   THROUGH ERN PA/NJ TO NRN MD AND DELMARVA REGION...
   
   ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND...
   AT 12Z TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER WRN NY WITH
   THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO NRN AR. 
   TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THESE SURFACE FEATURES
   WITH BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
   MORNING.  GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS SYSTEM... THE SURFACE
   LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH SERN-ERN NY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
   THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH ERN PA TO WRN VA TO TN AND SRN
   AR.  A WARM FRONT WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
   APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW/MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S...CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SRN
   NJ TO VA...WILL SPREAD NWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
   THESE VALUES LIKELY REACHING SRN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
   THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 6.5 C/KM WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY.  
   
   STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THE SRN GREAT LAKES
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
   MORE THAN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /45-60 KT/ TO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORMS.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WITHIN THE NOSE OF A 80-90 KT WSWLY
   MIDLEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS PA/NY TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SHOWERS AND
   TSTMS ONGOING AT 12Z IN VICINITY OF LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT
   WEAKEN TOO MUCH THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN STORM
   INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL PA/NY AS THE COLD FRONT
   ENCOUNTERS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THESE REGIONS...
   POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MID-LATE MORNING.  STRENGTH OF WLY LLJ /40-50
   KT/ WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY.  THIS JET
   IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 50-60 KT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS
   AFTERNOON FURTHER ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG...DAMAGING
   WINDS TO SPREAD ACROSS ERN NY/ NRN NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ALTHOUGH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED N OF MD AND THE
   DELMARVA REGION...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-35 KT AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT
   ADVANCES ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...KY/TN INTO NRN EXTENT OF CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION IN
   ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING S/SEWD ACROSS THIS
   REGION TODAY.  MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN U.S. TODAY...WITH 40-50
   KT NWLY WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40
   KT SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
   ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN.
   
   ...SRN GA/FL...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION
   TODAY.  FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS SRN GA AND THE NRN
   HALF OF FL AHEAD OF THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT TODAY.  35 KT WNWLY MIDLEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS
   TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 25-30 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR A FEW
   ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY
   DIURNAL AND THUS WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING.
   
   ..PETERS/SMITH.. 06/06/2010
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z