Jun 14, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 14 05:54:46 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100614 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100614 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100614 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100614 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 140551
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...OZARKS...MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
   
   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD TODAY WITH THE
   TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A SLOW-MOVING
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 12Z SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD
   ACROSS OK INTO CNTRL MO WHERE AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THIS
   MORNING. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE MCS SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SCNTRL
   MO...SE KS AND NRN/WRN OK BY MIDDAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   MCS...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT
   IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON. ETA-KF
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 30
   TO 40 KT RANGE SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE MCS
   DURING THE DAY. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AND BETTER ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS.
   ALTHOUGH THE MCS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED THROUGH PART OF THE
   DAY...WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
   GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   MODEL FORECASTS AGAIN INITIATE SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM SRN KS SSWWD INTO WRN OK AND WEST TX WHERE THE AXIS
   OF A 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD CREATE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT
   DEVELOPING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE GREATEST IN
   NORTHWEST TX WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 7.0
   C/KM. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK WHERE
   A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.
   AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CONGEAL INTO AN MCS ONCE AGAIN
   THIS EVENING...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN AS
   THE MAIN THREATS.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
   TODAY. BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
   BE IN PLACE FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHERE A
   MORNING MCS COULD BE ONGOING. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F AND
   SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY
   MIDDAY. IN SPITE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY...MODEL FORECASTS
   DECREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE OH VALLEY DURING THE MORNING
   WITH STORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD
   INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE STRONGER.
   THIS CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE. THIS ALONG
   WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   SUGGESTS THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOR STRONG MULTICELLS WITH A
   WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WITH A POTENTIAL
   FOR HAIL AND A TORNADO COULD DEVELOP WHERE INSTABILITY BECOME
   MAXIMIZED AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...ERN SEABOARD...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE ERN
   SEABOARD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F
   FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SSWWD INTO THE ERN GULF COAST STATES. MODEL
   FORECASTS INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CNTRL
   AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MOVE THIS CONVECTION EWD INTO THE LOWER
   ELEVATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
   ALONG WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
   MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
   
   ..BROYLES/GARNER.. 06/14/2010
   
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