Jun 14, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 14 16:10:45 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100614 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100614 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100614 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100614 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 141607
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010
   
   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX...ACROSS THE MID
   MS VALLEY...INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
   
   A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES...WITH A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING
   FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
   VALLEY...INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
   PARALLELS THIS SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW...AND WILL LIKELY BE
   THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
   
   ...TX/OK...
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   FROM SOUTHWEST OF LBB INTO SOUTHWEST OK.  MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY
   SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. 
   THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL /POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE/ ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW LEVEL
   WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK.  HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY AND
   HIGH CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY RESULT IN A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/IND/OH/KY
   AHEAD OF WEAK REMNANT MCV.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. 
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE MCS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EVENING
   WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
   A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
   KY...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KT.  CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AHEAD
   OF THE STORMS MAY LEAD TO A FEW INTENSE CORES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..HART/GRAMS.. 06/14/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z