Jun 24, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 24 05:54:44 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100624 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100624 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100624 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100624 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 240551
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE MID
   ATLANTIC INTO THE NERN STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE NERN STATES THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
   WILL DEEPEN OVER SERN QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD
   THROUGH THE NERN STATES...OH AND TN VALLEYS. SWRN EXTENSION OF FRONT
   WILL STALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST A POSITIVE TILT UPPER
   TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE WRN U.S. COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
   OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN
   FROM S-CNTRL CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A
   LEE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...NERN THROUGH MID ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   MCS CURRENTLY ONGOING COMPLICATES THIS FORECAST SOMEWHAT. FORWARD
   PROPAGATING PORTION OF MCS NOW MOVING THROUGH ERN OH IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS IT MOVES EWD
   INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS. OTHER STORMS ALONG WARM ADVECTION
   WING ACROSS SWRN NY WILL SHIFT ENEWD OVERNIGHT INTO CNTRL/ERN NY BY
   12Z THURSDAY. BEST DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL EXIST SOUTH OF
   THIS ACTIVITY FROM SERN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
   WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE/. STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN FEATURES AND WARM SECTOR AS THE ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES. A BELT OF WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH 40-50 KT MOSTLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH AND
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREAT...BUT ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
   THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   
   ...ND THROUGH NWRN MN...
   
   MODIFIED CP AIR WITH 50S DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN VICINITY OF THE
   DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
   SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN
   ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS REGION...AND LIFT WILL LIKELY INCREASE
   DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD THROUGH ND INTO THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY REGION. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZES WITH SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 30-40 KT UPPER FLOW
   RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM
   MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
   
   
   ...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS AS
   DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH TRANSPORTS MODIFIED CP AIR NWD BENEATH STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DEEP
   LAYER WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT /40-50 KT BULK
   SHEAR/ FOR SUPERCELLS FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WITH UPPER RIDGE
   IN PLACE CONCERN IS THAT STORM COVERAGE COULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. 
   
   
   ...SERN STATES THROUGH SRN PLAINS...
   
   A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY FROM KY INTO THE TN VALLEY WWD INTO OK AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE
   STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. PULSE TO MULTICELL STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE
   AGAIN DEVELOP...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL/JEWELL.. 06/24/2010
   
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