Jun 26, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 26 06:02:44 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100626 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100626 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100626 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100626 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 260559
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN
   PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY...UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE
   INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REACHING THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
   COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ND SWWD
   THROUGH SERN WY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NEB NWD
   THROUGH THE CNTRL OR ERN DAKOTAS.
   
   ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND BY EARLY
   MORNING...AND THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
   EXTEND FROM CNTRL IL WWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MO WITH A DEEPER BAROCLINIC
   ZONE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SRN MN INTO THE SRN PARTS OF THE GREAT
   LAKES. WRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT NWD DURING THE
   DAY. RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NEB WILL
   NOT LIKELY BE OVERTURNED BY FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.
   THEREFORE...WARM SECTOR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH
   MLCAPE FROM 3000-4000 J/KG FROM NEB NWD INTO A PORTION OF SD...SWRN
   MN AND WRN IA.
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OVER
   THE WRN DAKOTAS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
   PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL SD SWD INTO NEB...AND
   POSSIBLY IN VICINITY OF E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF
   UPPER TROUGH AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. INITIAL THREATS WILL BE
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
   WIND SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS
   AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
   LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY LARGE IN
   MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
   HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BY EARLY
   EVENING ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET FROM NERN
   NEB...ERN SD AND IN VICINITY OF E-W BOUNDARY INTO SWRN MN.
   
   GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...PORTIONS OF
   THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
   
   ...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
   
   THE COMBINATION OF DIABATIC WARMING AND EWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER
   THETA-E AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY
   OVER THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
   HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION COULD BE MITIGATED OR DELAYED SOMEWHAT DUE
   TO SWD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THIS REGION WILL
   REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE OF LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA WITH
   MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
   DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE DAY. PRIMARY
   THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL/DEAN/JEWELL.. 06/26/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z