SPC AC 251622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN OH VLY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC CST...
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
...OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
AS S/WV TROUGH AND STRONGER WIND FIELDS TRAVERSE NERN STATES
THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY BECOME A SEVERE WIND THREAT. WITH THE 40-50 KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH PWATS AND MLCAPE AOA 2500
J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PA SWWD INTO NRN WV
WILL FORM INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS INCREASING THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL.
THE STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE ESEWD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS
EVENING. SWD LIMIT OF THREAT EXPECTED TO BE TO SRN VA THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL BE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES.
STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE INTO OH VALLEY
WHERE SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER BUT AIR MASS WILL UNDERGO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION. AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
MORE PULSE TYPE STORMS.
...ND EARLY MON...
SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HI PLNS AS WLY MID
LVL FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...WELL S OF A PROGRESSIVE UPR
LOW IN AB/SK. WAA...MOISTURE INFLOW...AND ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF
LLJ MAY FOSTER LATE NIGHT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL ND. THESE
STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A THREAT FOR ISOLD MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL.
...SRN CASCADES/NRN SIERRA EWD INTO NWRN NV/SERN OR...
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES SUPPORT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EWD OFF HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BASES OF STORMS NEAR 500 MB...GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STRONG UPDRAFT GIVEN THE
PRONOUNCED EXPECTED EVAPORATION FROM THE HIGH BASED STORMS.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
REF MCD 1461
REMNANTS OF THE CIRCULATION OF BONNIE HAS MOVED ONSHORE SERN MS.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF TORNADOES IN
THE ENHANCED BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MOVING INLAND WITH THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.
..HALES.. 07/25/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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