SPC AC 050424
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. BOUNDED BY CLOSED UPPER LOWS
OVER THE ERN AND WRN STATES. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR
SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVER
CNTRL AND SRN CA.
...AZ...SRN NEV AND SWRN UT...
VORT MAX DROPPING SWD TOWARD CNTRL CA COAST WILL EJECT NEWD FROM
BASE OF UPPER LOW INTO WRN AZ AND SRN NEV TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE FOR A RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS. PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN WAKE OF INITIAL VORT MAX
CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH SRN NEV. STRONGEST DIABATIC WARMING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS SRN AZ. PERSISTENT SLY
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MORE CLOUDS LINGERING NORTH OF THE
RIM. MODEST DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CHARACTERIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-12 C AT
500 MB/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000
J/KG ACROSS SRN AZ WITH MORE LIMITED CAPE FARTHER NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING
VORT MAX ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE MAIN RISKS BEING
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST INTO SRN NV AND SWRN UT...BUT CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. IF
IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN THE SLIGHT RISK WILL
BE EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.
..DIAL/STOPPKOTTE.. 10/05/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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