Oct 22, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 22 13:02:46 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20101022 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20101022 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20101022 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20101022 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 221259
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
   
   VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NRN NM UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NNE INTO NRN CO THIS EVE AND
   INTO WRN NEB EARLY SAT.  ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TX
   PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP NNE ACROSS OK/KS TODAY AND INTO NEB TONIGHT AS
   A SERIES OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES...LIKELY TO EVOLVE OVER AZ/NM LATER
   TODAY...REACH W TX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.
   
   AT THE SFC...MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE FOR SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM W CNTRL TX ENE ACROSS
   N TX INTO SE OK.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
   SLIGHTLY N LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND EVENTUAL
   CESSATION OF PRECIP TO ITS N.  BUT SIGNIFICANT NWD MOVEMENT IS NOT
   EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT.  ELSEWHERE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL PLNS...
   MAIN AREA OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CNTRL STATES
   EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TX PANHANDLE IMPULSE. 
   AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES NNEWD...EXPECT THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN
   ITS WAKE WILL BE LIMITED OR EVEN NEGATIVE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER
   THE SRN PLNS.  ELEVATED STORMS ATTENDANT TO THE IMPULSE...NOW OVER
   NW TX/SW OK...SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY NEWD...WITH A THREAT FOR
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   
   BY EVE...COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW INTO
   QSTNRY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLY APPROACH OF LOW AMPLITUDE
   DISTURBANCES FROM NM...MAY SUPPORT A ROUND OF SFC-BASED STORMS OVER
   N CNTRL TX AND S CNTRL OK...WHERE SBCAPE COULD REACH 1000 J/KG. 
   AND...IF SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR ON WRN EDGE OF STRATUS
   DECK...CONVERGENCE ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS MAY SUPPORT A
   COUPLE LATE DAY/EARLY EVE STORMS IN THE NERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK/SW
   KS.  SFC-BASED STORMS ALSO MAY FORM AROUND THE SAME TIME IN AREA OF
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SFC LOW/TROUGHS IN ERN CO/WRN KS
   AND POSSIBLY SW NEB.
   
   35-40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THE TX/OK
   REGION...IF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DO INDEED FORM.  THESE WILL HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES
   GIVEN BACKED LOW LVL FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE.  COLDER AIR ALOFT
   /MINUS 16 C AT 500 MB/...PROXIMITY OF UPR IMPULSE...AND UPSLOPE
   COMPONENT MAY COMPENSATE FOR SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR TO YIELD A
   SIMILAR SVR THREAT IN THE WRN KS/ERN CO AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
   OF SFC HEATING.
   
   LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...A SEPARATE BAND OF SUSTAINED STORMS
   EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG TRAILING SW PART OF TX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS
   AZ/NM UPR DISTURBANCES ENHANCE ASCENT ON WRN EDGE OF INCREASING PW
   /AOA 1.25 INCHES/.  WHILE TIME OF DAY WILL BE A LIMITING
   FACTOR...COOL THERMAL PROFILES AND 40-50 KT SWLY DEEP SHEAR COULD
   FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH SVR WIND/HAIL.
   
   ..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/22/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z