Oct 27, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 27 16:30:47 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20101027 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20101027 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20101027 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20101027 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 271627
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2010
   
   VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
   INTO CNTRL GULF STATES...
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
   
   SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
   THE DELMARVA SWWD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO CNTRL MS/AL TODAY WITH
   SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE WAVES TRACKING NEWD ALONG ITS EXTENT.  WARM
   SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS SEASONABLY MOIST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
   POINTS OF 70-75 F AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES.  THIS MOISTURE
   COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
   1000-2500 J/KG.
   
   BASED ON 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN
   APPARENT LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE IS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   THIS MORNING.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
   COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AND
   PRECEDING RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY THE PRIMARY
   MECHANISMS MAINTAINING ONGOING BANDS OF TSTMS OVER MS/AL/GA INTO THE
   WRN CAROLINAS.  EXPECT A GRADUAL NEWD EXPANSION IN TSTM FORMATION
   AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
   PLAIN TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED LOWER MS VALLEY IMPULSE PROGRESSES
   NEWD AND INTERACTS WITH THE WARMING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.
   
   REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG THE SERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC
   WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO DEEP VORTEX OVER THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES/ONTARIO WITH A CORRIDOR OF SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES.  WHILE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY HAZARD...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH
   ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM AND REMAIN COINCIDENT WITH ANY MIGRATORY
   SURFACE WAVES PROPAGATING ALONG THE PRIMARY FRONT.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE FRONT
   BEGINS TO ADVANCE SEWD IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM 
   IMPULSE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE
   PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD/ROGERS.. 10/27/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z