SPC AC 060558
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE APR 06 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE WRN
GULF COASTAL REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE WRN STATES WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MIGRATE INTO THE GRTLKS...MIDWEST AND
LWR/MID-MS VLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. SFC LOW...INITIALLY OVER NCNTRL MO
WILL TRANSLATE INTO SRN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A CDFNT
SWEEPING SEWD. THE FRONT WILL REACH OH...WRN TN...LA BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WRMFNT WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO CNTRL
NEW ENGLAND AND CNTRL/NRN NY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN.
...MIDWEST TO THE WRN GULF COASTAL REGION...
CORRIDOR OF GULF MOISTURE ARCING AROUND THE SFC HIGH OVER THE SWRN
ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN A NARROW ZONE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY. CINH WILL BE QUITE
ROBUST...BUT APPROACH OF ASCENT TIED WITH THE UPR TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE EML. THUS...BANDS OF TSTMS WILL INTENSIFY WITHIN EXISTING
MORNING CONVECTION AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM IL SWWD TO E TX
BY MID-AFTN.
SSWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL LARGELY BE ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT BUT
CONTAIN STRONG SPEED SHEAR. THUS...WHILE LINEAR STORM MODES WILL BE
FAVORED...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LEWPS/BOWS
WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OVER PARTS OF
IL NEWD INTO SRN LWR MI AND NRN IND. COMPARATIVELY MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE
CELLS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH SWWD INTO
PARTS OF LA/E TX AS WELL.
STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TRACK ENE INTO THE OH VLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. SVR THREATS WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT FARTHER
TO THE S FROM WRN TN SWWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY WHERE HIGH WINDS/HAIL
AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...S TX...
PRECEDING THE SEWD SURGING CDFNT...BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OWING TO MID/UPR 60S SFC DEW POINTS
BENEATH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BUILD SWWD
FROM THE UPR TX COAST SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO S TX DURING THE
AFTN. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD.
HOWEVER...DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DOES
MANAGE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
...CNTRL/NRN NY...
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING CINH WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
PLAINS UPR TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY. CORRIDOR OF
MID-UPR 50S SFC DEW POINTS...EXPECTED HEATING AND LLVL CONVERGENCE
INVOF THE WRMFNT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN
NY. SHOULD A STORM FORM...PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 50 KTS OF WLY MID-LVL FLOW WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. ATTM...STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLD.
..RACY.. 04/06/2010
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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