May 9, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 9 17:36:47 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100509 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20100509 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 091735
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK TO
   SOUTHWEST MO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   PLAINS TO MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ...SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED
   MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS INTO
   SOUTHWEST MO...
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
   WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES...A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS EXPECTED
   TO ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY TO THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
   
   OWING TO A 50+ SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ROBUST ELEVATED
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...EARLY DAY ELEVATED TSTMS...WITH AT LEAST
   SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...WILL LIKELY BE
   ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO
   ADJACENT PORTIONS OF IA/MO/AR. ON THE EDGE OF AN EASTWARD BUILDING
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...THESE EARLY DAY STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO
   PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AS THIS ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   OTHERWISE...BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...MAINLY
   MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE
   PRE-DRYLINE WARM SECTOR FROM PORTIONS OF WEST/NORTH TX INTO OK AND
   SOUTHERN KS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EARLY DAY STORMS/CLOUD COVER
   COULD IMPEDE APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION WITH NORTH EXTENT ACROSS
   KS...BUT SUCH DETAILS WILL BE MORE READILY RESOLVED IN THE DAY 1
   TIME FRAME.
   
   OWING TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED DVCA AND STRONG HEATING/MIXING
   IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
   THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED
   SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD FIRST OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS BY
   MID AFTERNOON...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ALONG THE
   DRYLINE /AUGMENTED PERHAPS BY EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OR
   EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL OK
   BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   DRYLINE PERPENDICULAR DEEP LAYER WIND VECTORS...WARM/MOIST SECTOR
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-70 KT
   WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LARGE
   HAIL. AS LOW LEVEL/NEAR-1 KM FLOW RE-INTENSIFIES DURING THE EARLY
   EVENING HOURS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO REFLECT 300-400 M2/S2 OF 0-1
   KM/EFFECTIVE SRH AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
   POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY FROM THE OK
   PORTION OF I-40/44 INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS EITHER SIDE OF I-35/135.
   
   EVENTUALLY MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO
   LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND LARGE
   HAIL AS FAR EAST AS THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A
   BIT MORE ISOLATED WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
   FROM SOUTHERN OK TO WEST CENTRAL TX. NONETHELESS...SHEAR/INSTABILITY
   WILL AT LEAST CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/09/2010
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z