Aug 12, 2010 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 12 07:17:58 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100812 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20100812 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 120716
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   SSWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND
   THE N CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE A COLD FRONT LIKEWISE CONTINUES
   PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION AND INTO/ACROSS THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE FRONT SHOULD HOWEVER MAKE MUCH SLOWER
   SWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIKELY LINGERING INVOF NRN OK
   THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY REGION...
   SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD SHOULD EXPAND/DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION FUELS AN
   INCREASE IN CONVECTION.  AS THE FRONT ADVANCES HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
   OUTRUN THE EWD ADVANCE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...RESULTING IN A
   GENERALLY MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ATOP THE WARM SECTOR.  AS A
   RESULT...EXPECT A LESS ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY THAN THE PREVIOUS
   DAY...WITH LESS ORGANIZED STORMS AND THUS LESS SUBSTANTIAL HAIL/WIND
   POTENTIAL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/12/2010
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z