Dec 28, 2010 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 28 08:30:59 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20101228 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20101228 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 280828
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2010
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE LARGE SCALE DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONGST 00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS
   GUIDANCE...GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT A DEEP WESTERN STATES
   TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE PLAINS...WITH THE LEAD
   BRUNT/EXIT REGION OF A STRONG POLAR JET EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD
   TO INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR DEEP CONVECTION /INCLUDING SEVERE
   POTENTIAL/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
   FRIDAY.
   
   ...EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX...
   GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO/CAVEATS AS PREVIOUSLY
   DESCRIBED...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH
   AN ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODIFIED GULF
   AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
   AIRMASS/WARM SECTOR BECOMES INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED THURSDAY NIGHT
   INTO FRIDAY.
   
   CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/TSTMS TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY PROBABLE/PREVALENT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF EASTERN OK AND ARKLATEX...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT
   FALLS/FORCING ALOFT GRAZE THE WARM SECTOR. THE POTENTIAL COMBINATION
   OF WEAK BUT ADEQUATE BUOYANCY AMID UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS...COUPLED WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AMPLE
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR /AIDED BY A 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET/...COULD SUPPORT
   POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POTENTIALLY
   CAPABLE OF A TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND RISK. WHILE UNCERTAINTIES
   EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT AND LIKELIHOOD OF A SEVERE RISK
   THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST A
   MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL-TYPE RISK ARE WARRANTED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/28/2010
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z