Dec 29, 2010 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 29 08:33:00 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20101229 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20101229 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 290830
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CST WED DEC 29 2010
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH AND
   LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PER 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE...NEW YEARS EVE WILL SEE A DEEP
   LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
   CONUS...WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
   MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...AND A COLD FRONT SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD
   THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY. APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND A
   STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
   AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERE TSTMS NEW YEARS EVE.
   
   ...OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY...
   VIA THE ARRIVAL OF APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...EXTENSIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING FRIDAY
   MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY AND
   ARKLATEX...EASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
   ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTIES OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
   COMPLICATES THE DETAILS OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY
   WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT/...EVEN WHILE A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WITH 60+
   F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS
   VALLEY.
   
   PENDING AFOREMENTIONED DETAILS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RELATIVELY
   LOW-TOPPED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS FAR NORTH
   AS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...IN RELATIVELY CLOSE
   PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/BRUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.
   OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT FARTHER
   SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN A
   HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS...WHERE RELATIVELY MORE CONSEQUENTIAL
   DESTABILIZATION SEEMS PROBABLE.
   
   OVERALL...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED BUOYANCY...A VERY STRONG DEEP
   LAYER WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT A MULTI-MODAL POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS/QLCS DEVELOPMENT...WITH POSSIBILITIES FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS/SOME TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SOME SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/29/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z