SPC AC 221246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2011
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD...FEATURING AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
FROM THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPSTREAM
VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED WHILE SHIFTING SSEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND CNTRL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...MOST RECENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DISPLACED A HIGHER THETA-E AIR
MASS OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONTINENTAL AIR RESIDING ACROSS MOST OF THE
NATION.
STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASED DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL SYSTEM TRANSLATING SEWD
THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MAY SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SERN WY...NERN CO AND THE NEB
PNHDL/SWRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE
OF 100-200 J/KG WITHIN WELL-MIXED PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
OTHERWISE...ANY MORE ROBUST TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE GULF STREAM AND FL STRAITS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED OFF THE
SERN ATLANTIC COAST.
..MEAD.. 01/22/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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