SPC AC 231621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2011
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER AND MIDDLE TX COAST TONIGHT...
AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH 60-62 F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EXTREME WRN
GULF AND MID 60S IN THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND CONTRIBUTES TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS NEAR
THE LOWER TX COAST. THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND WAA ON
THE NOSE OF A 30 KT SLY LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL AND WEAK EMBEDDED CONVECTION NEAR THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX
COASTS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CAP OBSERVED IN THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ENOUGH TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION OVER LAND.
ONLY THE NAM BMJ SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAMKF AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAIN MORE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
THUS...WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AND NOT ADD A TSTM
AREA INLAND.
..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 01/23/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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