SPC AC 070024
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CST SUN FEB 06 2011
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE ARKLATEX SWD
ALONG THE SABINE RIVER WHERE A PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY. ALSO AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT IS ISENTROPIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND RETURN OF A RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER SERN TX/SW LA.
GPS WATER VAPOR MEASUREMENTS...AS WELL AS OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.50 INCHES OVER SRN AR/NRN
LA...INCREASING TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES OVER SWRN LA.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD ACROSS TX THIS EVENING WITH
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM NERN TX EWD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT LIFT NEAR THE LOW...AS WELL AS ADVECTION OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION AS IT TRAVERSES SRN
AR AND NRN LA...AND MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF WRN MS BY MON MORNING.
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT ARE STEEP...AVAILABLE MIXING
RATIOS AND UPDRAFT LIQUID WATER CONTENT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW FOR
SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL HAIL COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE N CNTRL GULF
OF MEXICO...WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR STORMS. A
FEW STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SERN LA TO
THE FL PANHANDLE.
..JEWELL.. 02/07/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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