SPC AC 101618
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
WSW-ENE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA AS OF
LATE MORNING WILL PROGRESS SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
TODAY IN WAKE OF MIDLEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT
IS QUITE MOIST WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AND BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. IN ADDITION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...IT APPEARS THAT
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND E COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION NOTED IN 12Z KEY/MFL SOUNDINGS...AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
..MEAD.. 02/10/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
|
