SPC AC 150506
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST MON FEB 14 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
THE PACIFIC NW...WHERE A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK
WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NERN
STATES AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS THERE. SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF
WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF 50S F DEWPOINTS NWD INTO OK BUT
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT WILL NOT SUPPORT
CONVECTION.
...NRN CA/WRN OREGON COAST...
AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY NOTED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFFSHORE AS OF 05Z...AND THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST. AREAS OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING JUST OFF THE NRN CA/WRN OREGON
COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED
WITHIN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THESE STORMS WILL BE LOW TOPPED...BUT
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MAY BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
50+ KT 850 MB FLOW. THE BULK OF THE WIND THREAT SHOULD BE BETWEEN
12Z-18Z BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER...BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME.
..JEWELL/GARNER.. 02/15/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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