SPC AC 110038
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CST THU MAR 10 2011
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...01Z UPDATE...
...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...
THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE ONGOING FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH
LIGHTNING...HAS BECOME FOCUSED IN RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A
FRONTAL WAVE NOW MIGRATING NORTH OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE CONSOLIDATING WITH THE
PRIMARY DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO A PROGRESSIVE COOLER
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE PENNSYLVANIA HIGHER TERRAIN...IT
SEEMS LIKELY TO WEAKEN WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 02-03Z. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED GUSTS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LINGERING FRONTAL
CONVECTION SPREADING NORTHEAST OF THE WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE
AREA...TOWARD PHILADELPHIA AND ATLANTIC CITY.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INLAND
PROGRESSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM CENTRAL/
EASTERN OREGON THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY 06Z. HOWEVER...DUE TO VERY WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...IT NOW APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW THE MINIMUM 10
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A /GENERAL/ THUNDERSTORM LINE.
..KERR.. 03/11/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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