Mar 24, 2011 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 24 12:45:43 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110324 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110324 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110324 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110324 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 241241
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2011
   
   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...W TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWWD FROM S TX INTO W TX TODAY AS A
   LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHARPENS ACROSS W TX.  SURFACE HEATING ON THE NW
   EDGE OF THE RETURNING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG
   THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE...COULD OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
   SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH
   INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST /MLCAPE LESS THAN 1000 J PER
   KG/...SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD
   SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FOR A FEW
   HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE THE CAP STRENGTHENS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/NE OK AREA TONIGHT...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UT/AZ THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TONIGHT.  THE APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL
   INDUCE WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS...THE REMNANTS OF WHICH WILL MOVE EWD
   INTO SW OK/NW TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  A STRENGTHENING SLY/SWLY
   LLJ IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER OK ALONG WITH RETURNING MOISTURE ABOVE
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  THE NET RESULT WILL BE A STRONG WAA REGIME WITH
   INCREASING MOISTURE AND CAPE BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER.  MUCAPE
   IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 40-50 KT...AND
   COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH
   ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN THE WAA REGIME.
   
   ...NRN CA COAST AND SACRAMENTO VALLEY TODAY...
   A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ESEWD AND INLAND
   OVER NRN CA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.  THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT OF
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN AND COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY. 
   HOWEVER...COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /NEAR -30 C AT 500 MB/ WILL
   SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR MARGINAL BUOYANCY /MUCAPE
   AOB 200 J PER KG/ NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS AND ASCENT WITHIN THE
   LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET...IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK
   SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
   GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TORNADO IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
   
   ..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/24/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z