Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 010538
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO CNTRL
   TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD SWLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER MN MOVES INTO
   ONTARIO AND THE TRAILING FOUR-CORNERS DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS.  AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THE FORMER SYSTEM
   WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
   BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO CNTRL TX.  THE
   FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...INCLUDING
   SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH. 
   
   ...MID-SOUTH TO CNTRL/NRN TX...
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/TSTMS WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING TO THE N OF
   THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT FROM N TX/OK NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY.  A FEW STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
   HAIL...PARTICULARLY OVER N TX/SRN OK ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SLY
   LLJ.  
   
   MODEST HEATING OF A DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE S OF THE FRONT FROM WRN TN/NWRN MS SWWD INTO
   CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON.  MORNING STORMS AND/OR NEW ACTIVITY WILL
   ROOT INTO THIS AMPLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM E TX INTO CNTRL/SRN AR AMID WEAKER
   INHIBITION.  COMPARATIVELY MORE ISOLD STORMS ARE APT TO FORM FARTHER
   W ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION IN PARTS OF THE ERN HILL
   COUNTRY/CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTN.  
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS
   SRN FRINGE OF 65 KT SWLY MID-LVL FLOW TOPS A SLY LLJ OF 35-40 KTS. 
   STORM MODE WILL PROBABLY FEATURE A MESSY MIX OF ROTATING STRUCTURES
   AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE ENTITIES ACROSS
   CNTRL/ERN TX.  THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
   ARKLATEX REGION NEWD TOWARD MEMPHIS WHERE A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT.  OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS CAN BE
   EXPECTED.  
   
   ACTIVITY WILL TRAIN ENE ACROSS THE SAME CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL TX
   ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR AND THE MID-SOUTH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
   MONDAY WITH RISKS FOR GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
   
   ..RACY/GRAMS.. 05/01/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z