May 5, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Thu May 5 16:17:05 UTC 2011 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 051612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E THIS PERIOD AS MID LEVEL JET MAX ROTATES SEWD ACROSS KS/NE THIS AM TO MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT. COLD AIR ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF JET WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS MO THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AHEAD OF TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT NOW INTO NWRN MO/ERN KS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR CONSIDERABLE SFC HEATING...SBCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG INTO CENTRAL AND SRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD RESPOND TO BOTH THE HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MO AND WITH COOLING UPPER TEMPS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROB OF A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. ..HALES/GOSS.. 05/05/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z