Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 130050
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011
   
   VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   
   ...CENTRAL U.S...
   A NUMBER OF STORMS REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
   TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AT
   01Z.  IN GENERAL THOUGH...ACTIVITY APPEARS PAST PEAK
   INTENSITY...WITH AT LEAST SOME RECENT WEAKENING TRENDS NOTED. 
   STORMS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG WARM SECTOR
   INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH A COLD
   MID-LEVEL AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING THE CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW. 
   VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE AS WELL...MOSTLY DUE TO LINGERING
   MODESTLY STRONG CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW...BUT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
   PROGRESSES THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WEAKENING TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO
   HASTEN BY 03-04Z.  
   
   AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...CONTRIBUTING TO A SLOW EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS KANSAS...ONE
   AREA THAT COULD STILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
   PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...LARGELY
   UNAFFECTED BY ONGOING STORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/13/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z