Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 140049
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011
   
   VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
   KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN...MS...NWRN AL AND SERN LA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE NC AND SC REGION...
   
   ...WRN TN VALLEY REGION...
   LINE OF CONVECTION FROM WRN KY SWWD INTO NRN MS IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE EWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
   ISOLATED HAIL. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 03Z AS THEY
   INTERACT WITH A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM EARLIER
   CONVECTION...FROM CENTRAL KY SWWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN MS AND SERN LA...
   AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. EVEN THOUGH CONVERGENCE APPEARS 
   WEAK...CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THOUGH
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED THAN FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
   NRN MS...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL...AND
   SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. WHAT SEVERE STORMS DO DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN BY
   03Z-06Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND ACTIVITY  SHIFTS EWD TOWARD
   THE MS/AL BORDER WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE DUE TO CLOUDS AND
   EARLIER PRECIPITATION. 
   
   ...SC/NC REGION...
   CONVERGENCE NEAR WARM FRONT...LOCATED E-W ACROSS NRN NC...AND WEAK
   CONFLUENCE IN SC WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH
   THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONGLY VEERING WINDS
   IN THE LOWER 200 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE WERE RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES FROM
   2000-3000 J/KG WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS
   WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
   AROUND 03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY STABILIZES.
   
   ..IMY.. 05/14/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z