May 19, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 19 05:24:08 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110519 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110519 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110519 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110519 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 190520
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOSED UPPER LOWS
   OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND OH VALLEY DRIFTING ONLY VERY SLOWLY
   EAST. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THESE
   FEATURES. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NWD TROUGH WRN KS ATTENDED BY A
   WARM FRONT. DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD THROUGH WRN TX...WRN OK AND WRN KS
   BEFORE ONCE AGAIN RETREATING OVERNIGHT. FARTHER EAST A WEAK OCCLUDED
   LOW AND FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
   
   ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
   
   ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD BE IN
   PROGRESS FROM NRN KS INTO NEB. IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...THE
   ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL
   KS...WRN/CNTRL OK INTO N-CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF WRN TX AS RICHER
   MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY
   LAYER AND 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH WRN KS
   AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH ERN
   PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. THIS ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING SUGGESTS
   STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER
   CNTRL KS. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S AS THE
   DRYLINE MIXES EWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM
   35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...INITIALLY NEAR TRIPLE POINT/WARM
   FRONT OVER CNTRL KS WHERE BACKED SELY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LARGER 0-1
   KM HODOGRAPHS. A SMALL WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST
   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OK INTO TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LLJ
   STRENGTHENS AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
   
   ADDITIONAL STORMS...LIKELY MORE LINEAR IN NATURE...MAY DEVELOP LATE
   THURSDAY NIGHT FROM WRN TX INTO WRN OK AS PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES
   THE RETREATING DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   
   ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH UPPER
   LOW AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
   IN STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 500 J/KG MLCAPE. THREAT
   WILL EXIST FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO
   DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
   TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..DIAL/GARNER.. 05/19/2011
   
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