Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 200054
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
   
   VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AREAS...
   
   THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN MO THROUGH CNTRL KS AND
   ERN CO. A RETREATING DRYLINE STRETCHES FROM NEAR SANDERSON NWD TO
   JUST EAST OF CHILDRESS TX TO NEAR HAYS KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE
   WARM FRONT. WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000-2500 J/KG
   MLCAPE/ FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN AND CNTRL OK WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY
   WITH NWD EXTENT INTO KS AND NEB. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED
   ALONG DRYLINE EARLIER TODAY HAVE EVOLVED INTO TWO CLUSTERS...ONE
   OVER NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK AND ANOTHER LIFTING NORTH OF WARM FRONT
   ACROSS N-CNTRL KS. BETWEEN THESE TWO STORM CLUSTERS...AN EXTENSIVE
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PROPAGATED NWWD THROUGH NWRN OK AND
   S-CNTRL KS.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN TENDENCY
   OF STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS WITH HP STRUCTURES ALONG WITH LOSS
   OF DIABATIC WARMING...PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN
   POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS OVER SWRN OK INTO NWRN
   TX WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE UNSTABLE. THE 00Z RAOB FROM
   NORMAN SHOWS A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. CONVERGENCE ALONG
   GUST FRONTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE EWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
   ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO INTO CNTRL OK. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THE
   CAP WILL PROBABLY LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT.
   
   DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE RETREATING
   DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS PROCESS MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT
   OF ADDITIONAL STORMS AND POTENTIAL UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH FROM PARTS
   OF WRN TX...WRN OK AND SWRN KS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
   
   FARTHER NORTH INTO EXTREME NRN KS AND NEB...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
   HAIL AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED NORTH OF WARM FRONT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/20/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z