May 28, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Sat May 28 16:34:08 UTC 2011 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 281629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MN/WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS INTO IL/IND... ...MN/WI... A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER ND/SRN MANITOBA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...INCLUDING ONE OVER WESTERN ND/SD. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT MN/WI LATER TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN MN BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...NORTHERN WI...AND THE ARROWHEAD REGION THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD TEMPERATURES AND FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW FAST-MOVING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE FROM EASTERN KS INTO PORTIONS OF MO/IL WHERE STRONG HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION MIGHT AID DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS CAN FORM...STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OR ORGANIZED OR EVEN SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SLIGHT RISK AXIS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS FROM KS INTO IND. ...NY/NEW ENGLAND... WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ...SC/GA/FL... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING FROM SC INTO THE FL PENINSULA...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG. WIND FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT COMBINATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW WET-MICROBURSTS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/DEAN.. 05/28/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z