Jun 1, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 1 16:23:06 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110601 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110601 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110601 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110601 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 011619
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2011
   
   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
   AND NORTHEAST STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...NORTHEAST STATES...
   BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST
   STATES...WITH A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING QUICKLY
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OH/PA/NY.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
   FROM NORTHEAST NY INTO PA/WV...WHICH DEFINES THE WEST EDGE OF A
   MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF
   ME INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  MEANWHILE...FAST WESTERLY FLOW
   ALOFT /50-80 KNOTS AT 500MB/ AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
   WINDS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR SEVERE
   STORMS.
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   OVER NY/PA.  THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILD SOUTHWARD
   INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW
   FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES.  THERE IS
   UNCERTAINTY WHETHER STORMS WILL MAINTAIN A DISCRETE MODE...OR WILL
   ORGANIZE INTO A LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  IF DISCRETE MODES CAN
   BE MAINTAINED...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR A RISK OF
   A FEW TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITH
   WIDESPREAD 50S AND 60S DEWPOINTS FROM WESTERN KS SOUTHWARD.  STRONG
   DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   ELIMINATE THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
   DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO. 
   MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A STRENGTHENING
   SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED
   TORNADOES MIGHT ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER WESTERN
   KS.  
   
   FARTHER EAST...A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
   NORTH CENTRAL KS.  THESE ELEVATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED
   WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION.  THE
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL FROM
   CENTRAL KS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF
   FOCUS AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING COVERAGE PRECLUDE A SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE PARTS OF
   THE DAKOTAS/MN/IA AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS BENEATH STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..HART/JIRAK.. 06/01/2011
   
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