Jun 2, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Thu Jun 2 05:22:09 UTC 2011 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
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Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 020517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH NV EARLY THIS MORNING...SHIFTS INTO ERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT TO STRETCH FROM WRN ND SWWD INTO FAR WRN NEB BY 00Z. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...PLUS A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NERN MO NWWD INTO ND SHOULD PROVIDE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. ALSO...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SRN APPALACHIANS AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION. ...NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY... CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS IA WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION. WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET BACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...REMNANT CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AIR SHOULD REINFORCE WARM FRONT. THOUGH STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE NRN PLAINS...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EWD MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGLY WARMING TEMPERATURES OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES TO RANGE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. STRONG WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AS STORMS SHIFT EWD INTO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ...SRN APPALACHIANS REGION... ALTHOUGH THE SRN EXTENSION OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEW ENGLAND TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF AREA...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS/MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG/ AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK FRONT ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE... THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...25F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS SPREADS...SUGGEST THAT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SINCE STORMS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...ERN NM AREA... STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN PLUME OF MOIST MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS AND DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 600 MB MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..IMY/COHEN.. 06/02/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z