Jun 2, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 2 05:22:09 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110602 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110602 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110602 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110602 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 020517
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO
   THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
   REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE
   NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH
   NV EARLY THIS MORNING...SHIFTS INTO ERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
   WILL RESULT IN AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT TO STRETCH FROM WRN ND SWWD
   INTO FAR WRN NEB BY 00Z. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...PLUS A
   WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NERN MO NWWD INTO ND SHOULD PROVIDE
   PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE
   LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ALSO...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP PUSH A
   WEAK COLD FRONT SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SRN APPALACHIANS
   AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
   CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   ACROSS IA WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION. WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD
   WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET BACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...REMNANT CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AIR SHOULD REINFORCE WARM
   FRONT. THOUGH STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING IS NOT
   EXPECTED...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
   PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE NRN
   PLAINS...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EWD MOVING COLD FRONT
   SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGLY
   WARMING TEMPERATURES OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...DEWPOINTS IN THE
   70S...BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES TO
   RANGE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. STRONG WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
   AND VEERING WIND PROFILES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL
   PROVIDE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED LOW LEVEL
   WINDS AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST A FEW TORNADOES ARE
   POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
   BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AS STORMS SHIFT EWD INTO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER.
   
   ...SRN APPALACHIANS REGION...
   ALTHOUGH THE SRN EXTENSION OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
   NEW ENGLAND TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF AREA...THE COMBINATION OF
   STRONG HEATING...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS/MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000
   J/KG/ AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK FRONT ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WILL ONLY BE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE... THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...25F
   TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS SPREADS...SUGGEST THAT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
   SINCE STORMS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN
   QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...ERN NM AREA...
   STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN PLUME OF MOIST
   MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS AND DEEP MIXED LAYER
   TO 600 MB MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST DURING THE
   LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..IMY/COHEN.. 06/02/2011
   
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