Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 021627
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011
   
   VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MO/IL...
   
   BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS MORNING WILL
   MAINTAIN A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS FROM AZ/NM INTO
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS
   IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   50S AND 60S FROM ND SOUTHWARD.  MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STRONG
   CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE IN MOST AREAS...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE
   DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
   
   ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   MODELS SUGGEST A FEW INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST FORM OVER
   EASTERN NM...THEN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF CO/KS.  STORM COVERAGE
   APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL.  THE RISK AREA IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BE
   RELATIVELY NARROW WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING BY MID EVENING.
   
   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...
   MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEB/SD BY
   EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. 
   SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT MAY
   OCCUR OVER CENTRAL ND DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS.  RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS
   REGION...PROMOTING SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...MO/IL...
   A PERSISTENT MCS REMAINS OVER IA/MO/IL THIS MORNING...WITH
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.  THOSE
   CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
   RATHER STRONG HEATING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MO AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   IL.  THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A
   FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ALONG THE MS
   RIVER.  IF STORMS CAN FORM...ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FEW INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF GA/SC THIS AFTERNOON...BENEATH THE
   UPPER RIDGE.  LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   RATHER LOW COVERAGE.  FOR THIS REASON...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE
   SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS REGION.  NEVERTHELESS...THOSE STORMS THAT DO
   FORM WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF AMPLE MOISTURE AND HIGH
   CAPE...FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS OR HAIL.
   
   ..HART/JIRAK.. 06/02/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z