Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 050042
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011
   
   VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING...PERHAPS INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   
   ...OHIO VALLEY...
   SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL HAS BEEN LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY RELATIVELY WEAK
   TO MODEST WESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS /RANGING
   FROM AROUND 20+ KT OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO AROUND 30
   KT IN THE OHIO VALLEY/.  BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER ONLY SLOWLY
   STABILIZING...WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF THE OZARK PLATEAU SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUATION OF VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING...PERHAPS THE
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.  STRONGEST CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL
   REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL INTO AT
   LEAST THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE WEAKENING OR DIMINISHING MORE
   RAPIDLY.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   ATTEMPTS AT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR ONGOING WEST OF RUSSELL
   KS...WHERE A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
   ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...THIS IS 
   BENEATH VERY WARM AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WITH
   INHIBITION LIKELY TO INCREASE SHORTLY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. 
   IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
   EXIST FARTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
   LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...WHERE INHIBITION IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. 
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS
   REGION LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS THE PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET
   REACHES PEAK INTENSITY AND GRADUALLY VEERS NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER
   05-07Z.  IF CONVECTION FORMS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED
   BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SIZABLE CAPE AND MID-LEVEL/SUB-CLOUD
   TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
   DOWNBURSTS AND SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
   ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/05/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z