Jun 5, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 5 06:03:05 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110605 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110605 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110605 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110605 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 050559
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND
   THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
   
   CORRECTED WIND PROBABILITY LINE
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK
   PLATEAU REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER... MODELS ARE
   SUGGESTIVE THAT A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE AND CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED
   IMPULSES...NOW PROGRESSING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY
   OF THE RIDGE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
   STATES.
   
   AT THE SAME TIME AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OR TWO WILL
   CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS WITHIN THE EASTERLIES OVER THE GULF
   COAST REGION...TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...WHILE AT LEAST ONE
   IMPULSE LIFTS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN
   MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES REGION.  THIS
   LATTER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
   WHICH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF ITS CURRENT POSITION
   OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LINGERING COLD
   CORE OF AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
   
   ...LWR OHIO VALLEY INTO ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   FOR TODAY...AND THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... AS MID-LEVEL
   FLOW TAKES ON MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.  MODESTLY STRONG
   SPEEDS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE LEE OF THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHERE A
   DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE-SCALE UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION.  HOWEVER...A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
   PERTURBATIONS TO THE SOUTH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE SOUTHWARD
   ADVANCEMENT OF AN INITIAL WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE
   VALLEY AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WHERE STRONGEST BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.  WITH
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS AND EVOLVING SURFACE
   COLD POOLS...THIS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... PERHAPS SOME HAIL...THROUGH THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...IOWA...
   NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE CREST OF THE UPPER RIDGE...GUIDANCE IS
   SUGGESTIVE /THE NAM IN PARTICULAR/ THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...IN
   THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  MIXED
   LAYER CAPE IN THE VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
   BECOME SIZABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INHIBITION BENEATH VERY
   WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MAY SUPPRESS THE INITIATION OF STORMS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/05/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z