Jun 9, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 9 05:48:10 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110609 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110609 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110609 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110609 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 090544
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO NEW
   ENGLAND...
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN...EXTENDING INTO NRN AZ...LIFTING NEWD INTO THE
   CNTRL ROCKIES...IN LINE WITH LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS
   FEATURE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
   WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NO FARTHER SOUTH THAN
   I-70 ACROSS KS PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A 45-50KT H5 SPEED MAX WILL EJECT
   ACROSS NERN NM AT 12Z INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA BY 10/00Z.  THIS FEATURE
   WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR NECESSARY FOR
   SUSTAINED LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR A WELL DEFINED
   FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE DRAPED FROM NERN KS INTO SRN IA/NRN MO. 
   STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING ACROSS KS WILL ENSURE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
   THERMALS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS KS WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY MATURE
   INTO SUPERCELL ACTIVITY OVER NERN KS AFTER 21Z WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
   WITHIN BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. 
   ADDITIONALLY...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
   J/KG WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS
   OF 2 INCHES.  AS A RESULT A REGIONAL POCKET OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
   WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FROM NERN KS/SERN NEB INTO NWRN MO/SWRN IA AS LLJ
   INCREASES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD ONE OR MORE
   MCSS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
   PERIOD.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...SFC TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 100F
   ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SCNTRL KS/NWRN OK INTO NWRN TX.  THIS WILL
   RESULT IN A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THAT SHOULD FAVOR HIGH BASED
   THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
   DOWNBURSTS OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME HAIL.
   
   ...UPPER OH VALLEY/NERN U.S...
   
   A BELT OF HIGH PRE-FRONTAL PWAT...ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-1.75 IN...WILL
   TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM AND EXTEND FROM THE NRN OH VALLEY INTO NRN
   NY...EWD INTO SRN ME BY 18Z.  THIS CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
   COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE SFC HEATING SUCH THAT AN AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD EASILY BE OBTAINED AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE WIND
   SHIFT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EASILY SUPPORT AT LEAST ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL UPDRAFTS...PERHAPS EVEN AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL WITHIN AN
   OTHERWISE MOSTLY LINEAR OR CLUSTERED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.  LATEST
   THINKING IS STORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY BY 16-17Z TIME FRAME ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
   NWRN PA INTO UPSTATE NY.  ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IT WILL
   PROPAGATE SEWD WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   
   ...SERN WY/NERN CO...
   
   RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD WITHIN ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO INTO ERN WY.  MODELS SUGGEST MID
   40S SFC DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
   UPSLOPE COMPONENT AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH.  FAVORABLE
   SHEAR PROFILES WILL ENCOURAGE STORM ROTATION BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS
   A BIT TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK ATTM
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS INTO THE GULF STATES BENEATH HIGH LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTIVE
   OF PULSE UPDRAFTS.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.  ACTIVITY WILL
   BE STRONGLY CORRELATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
   
   ..DARROW/ROGERS.. 06/09/2011
   
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